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The Yesterday Audit numbers are aggregate per-bucket statistics - those need no redaction.
Daily Research Brief - 2026-03-14
bundle=public_sample_bundle · indexes covered: NIFTY50, BANKNIFTY · est. read ~6 min
TLDR
The model flags 3 instrument(s) with non-trivial probability of testing a structural level today. Read the watchlist before deciding whether the context matches your own thesis.
Index regime
- NIFTY50 - pending: index_data_not_provided_in_sample.
- BANKNIFTY - pending: index_data_not_provided_in_sample.
Options suitability
NIFTY50 - directional bias: mild_down; expected range today: 1.40 ATR; theta danger: 62%.
regime for premium buyers: neutral_to_unfavorable; for premium sellers: moderately_favorable.
- strike ₹[subscriber-only] (supply_pool) p_test_today=51% p_60min=17%
Sector regime
- trending up: BANKING, FINANCIALS
- trending down: IT, PHARMA
- chopping: FMCG
- neutral: AUTO, ENERGY, METALS
- Leadership change vs yesterday: IT.
Watchlist
LARGE_CAP_BANK_A (BANKING) long bias toward demand_pool at ₹[subscriber-only]
P(test today) = 62%; P(test within 60min) = 28%. Confidence: high.
NIFTY50 (INDEX) short bias toward supply_pool at ₹[subscriber-only]
P(test today) = 47%; P(test within 60min) = 14%. Confidence: moderate.
LARGE_CAP_IT_B (IT) long bias toward demand_pool at ₹[subscriber-only]
P(test today) = 41%; P(test within 60min) = 11%. Confidence: moderate.
note: long candidate fights bearish sector regime
Avoid
- ALL_IT: sector_trending_down_avoid_new_longs (confidence: moderate)
- LARGE_CAP_IT_B: long candidate fights bearish sector regime (confidence: moderate)
Confidence
calibrated today: direction, touch watch h12, touch watch h36, touch watch h60
Overall brief confidence: high.
Yesterday audit
brief=BRIEF_2026_03_13 predictions_made=14 resolved=12
Hit rate by confidence bucket
| Type | Bucket | n | Hit | Mean p | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| touch watch | very_high | 2 | 50% | 84% | +0.34 |
| touch watch | high | 5 | 80% | 71% | -0.09 |
| touch watch | moderate | 3 | 33% | 55% | +0.22 |
| avoidance | moderate | 2 | 100% | 100% | +0.00 |